Following a much-publicized $500 million investment from Activision, all eyes were on Destiny. Bungie had a successful pedigree with the popular Halo series, but Activision was still making an enormous gamble by counting on the developer to make lightning strike twice. Those funds were said to be put towards development costs, as well as a massive marketing campaign.
To compare, Grand Theft Auto 5 is estimated to have cost roughly $260 million. That comparison isn't quite as direct as it may seem, since Destiny has always been pitched as a 10-year deal spanning multiple games. Still, that made Activision's roll of the dice all the riskier, since it was counting on not just a successful game, but the start of a successful franchise.
The company was quick to tout its first-day sales of $500 million, purportedly making its investment back in just 24 hours, though its claims were met with some degree of skepticism from industry watchers. Specifically, the press release had focused on "sell-in" figures, also known as the units sold to retailers and distributors, rather than "sell-through," or the units that make it into consumers' hands. This is a common tactic for a publisher looking to puff its chest, but in the case of Destiny, it was just the start of a puzzling trend.
For months, Activision was especially guarded and cagey about Destiny's sales numbers. As Kotaku observed, it spent months making a long list of boasts unrelated to sales, ranging from hours played to concurrent players. One of its oddest habits was to combine figures like revenue or registered users with Hearthstone, the digital CCG from Activision subsidiary Blizzard. This had the double-edged effect of obscuring both Destiny and Hearthstone, as journalists and investors alike were unable to tell where one ended and the other began.
The numbers were impressive, but the message was clear: Activision is doing very well, so don't sweat the details.
Only recently have we gotten a slightly clearer understanding of Destiny's success, from an unusual source. Court documents released in the course of a recently settled lawsuit from former Bungie employee Marty O'Donnell gave us more details than Activision investor calls had in months. According to the documents, Destiny sold 6.3 million units in its first month, amounting to an additional $47.5 million in revenue on top of the $500 million from day-one sales and pre-orders.
We have a better idea of its player base too, thanks largely to a simple process of elimination. In May, Activision once again combined Destiny and Hearthstone, claiming 50 million registered players between them. Near that date, Blizzard itself boasted 30 million registered players for Hearthstone, leading to the conclusion that Destiny has 20 million of its own. That's double the 9.5 million registered users number that Activision's Eric Hirshberg had cited in November, so the holidays must have been very kind to Destiny. Still, as Hirshberg observed, it's not an exact count. Some players have multiple identities, and others might have lapsed.
As The Taken King hits, Activision's investment is being put to the test in a way it hasn't since launch. While it has been undoubtedly successful so far, business-focused publications like Forbes have raised concerns that Destiny is too traditional to fit into the Activision ouevre. World of Warcraft, Call of Duty, and Skylanders are all consistent revenue streams with constant monetization hooks. Destiny has released a handful of downloadable content packs, but nothing about it feeds a continuous stream of cash.
The Taken King is Destiny's first large-scale expansion, and as such it's more expensive than previous DLC packs. In absense of a new packaged release this year, it's filling the gap. Destiny is following a more standard monetization model, though. While Activision has likely made its money back and then some, it will want Bungie to make good with consistent success. That makes Taken King the next gamble, and one to watch as we gauge its success.
