Opinion: Will HoloLens End the Console Era?

Yesterday's Microsoft Build conference keynote gave audiences a fresh look at the HoloLens, an augmented reality headset and wearable computer that projects digital 3D objects atop the real world. The augmented reality demonstration included a wonderfully animated weather widget, which looked like a small beach captured inside an invisible bowl, complete with water lapping on its shore. That was followed by bringing up a video player, projected onto a nearby wall, which could be resized and set to follow the user wherever s/he goes.

Although the device isn't available yet, and there are still a list of important unanswered questions (such as price, battery life, comfort, etc.), the possible applications for a head mounted computer seem endless. It could spell doom for decorative furniture, and possibly large screen TVs, since you can theoretically download and project anything you want in your own custom world. At the very least, frustrated Amiibo hunters can get a break by using the HoloLens to add virtual stand-in figures to their collection until they can obtain the real thing. But there is a more substantial piece of hardware that might be rendered obsolete should the HoloLens take off: video game consoles.

From a reductionist standpoint, a video game console like the Xbox One and PlayStation 4 is essentially a computer with a powerful video card, dedicated to the task of providing entertainment, especially (but not limited to) video games. Being that the HoloLens is a wearable computer that can project multiple 3D objects onto the real world, including a room sized rendering of Mars' surface, an interactive animated robot, and a living room Minecraft miniverse, its graphical capabilities aren't in question. HoloLens video games are inevitable, and many existing franchises could be brought over to the augmented reality experience. The main limitations will be the device's local memory storage and battery life, both of which may be overcome with time and engineering solutions.

In the meantime, a question will grow increasingly prominent. How will relatively large, stationary, consoles systems that can only be played on one screen at a time fit in a future where everyone is wearing an individualized computing device? Are they destined to become antiquated ahead of of their time, useful for little more than playing old games from a past era? Mobile devices like tablets more or less gutted desktop computer and notebook sales when they flooded into the market, but even phones and tablets aren't out and on all the time, nor do they change reality the way HoloLens does. Many video games pride themselves on their sense of immersion, and even though it's second to full-on virtual reality, HoloLens provides a unique way for players to see an interact with their entertainment. Sony's Project Morpheus may offer up some worthy competition, but it is still a virtual reality headset that must be tethered to PS4, where the experience begins and ends. HoloLens has a significant advantage in that its experience can be taken practically anywhere, and interacting with it won't necessarily disconnect you from the real world.

Then again, there's no bigger resource drain than video games. Whatever the HoloLens' battery life is, it's likely to be cut far shorter when running fast-paced video games. People imagine different the futures for the HoloLens, but I doubt the optimal vision includes being forced to be sit on a couch while your headset is plugged into the wall. It is this factor that might keep high-end gaming PCs and the Xbox One, both driven by Windows and Microsoft, going. The two are intended to become closer relatives when Windows 10 brings a more unified experience. Players can already stream many games from a powerful computer to a less powerful one using Steam In-Home Streaming. Xbox One games can be streamed to a PC running Windows 10, including (presumably) HoloLens. This method will take the processing strain off the HoloLens, thereby conserving its battery.

While playing streamed games in a holographic window might not seem like the ideal way to use the HoloLens, I argue that there is potential that extends much further than a flat screen TV. Firstly, there would be less of an up-front investment. Instead of spending hundreds of dollars on a large entertainment system, you could resize the screen to your liking. Have enough room for a 100-inch projection? Go for it. Speakers are already built in to the HoloLens, so you don't have to worry about audio. Even if those tiny speakers prove to be insufficient, there will almost certainly be plenty of wireless solutions.

Furthermore, you won't need an actual second screen to have a second screen experience. You could have an interactive HoloLens app running concurrently with the game. Augmented reality objects could appear in your room, adding to the immersion. Perhaps your room could be decorated with whatever environment you're playing in, whether it be a jungle, underwater, or on an alien world. However, streaming would still be a temporary measure to keep gaming consoles relevant until HoloLens technology improves enough to play games independently. That is, unless holographic augmented reality gaming become more preferable than flat screen gaming.

There's still a lot for HoloLens to prove before it has a chance of being picked up on a large scale. But if it does take off, its rise could mark the decline of other devices, much like how tablets overtook desktop computers. For Microsoft, its mass adoption would mean a success, a big success, or a huge success, since rising tides lift all boats running Windows 10. The HoloLens is a Windows 10 PC, so if games move to it, PC gaming adapts and survives on Microsoft's turf. Being able to stream high-end games from an Xbox One could also increase the console's sales further, leading to the a fully unified Microsoft world. Sony could decide to compete by releasing a Windows 10 app that allows streaming from a PS4, similar to what's on Xperia devices, but that seems unlikely. Even if it does happen, Microsoft still ultimately wins. So, it seems HoloLens has the potential to augment reality in more ways that projecting virtual furniture.