SimCity population '100 percent above' EA's estimations
Being the first SimCity game in over a decade, you'd think that EA would have known that demand for their city-planning game would be through the roof. But as SimCity's bungled launch proved, that was not the case. In fact, a new interview with Maxis' Lucy Bradshaw reveals exactly how much the company had grossly underestimated launch demand.
Being the first SimCity game in over a decade, you'd think that EA would have known that demand for their city-planning game would be through the roof. But as SimCity's bungled launch proved, that was not the case. In fact, a new interview with Maxis' Lucy Bradshaw reveals exactly how much the company had grossly underestimated launch demand.
"We've reached peaks just in the first week that were literally 100 percent above our early estimations," Bradshaw said, saying the company did not expect "a huge surge in pre-orders within the last week" and lengthy game sessions once players were able to connect.
According to Bradshaw, players were playing much longer than anticipated. "We did not expect out of the gate was the length of time each player played: seven hours average at launch," she told VentureBeat. "Which is cool but again meant we had players on for long amounts of time and this affected our peaks. The ways in which they navigated the game, which being a sandbox style game is not predictive. These just led to results that we did not experience in our Betas."
Of course, a proper beta would have better predicted such behavior. However, SimCity opted to hold extremely restrictive beta tests, something Bradshaw does regret after-the-fact. "We needed longer, more comprehensive beta tests," she said. "I do think that a different approach to our betas would have better informed our automated load testing and helped us to better analyze the results from both of these means of testing. So, yes, if we had it to over again, I would change how we approached our betas and I would have used this information to improve our load testing."
Apparently, relying heavily on "internal betas" didn't properly predict real-world behaviors. Some would argue that this misguided approach is especially ironic coming from a studio that specializes in simulating human behavior. "We had completed numerous internal betas and server load testing and nothing indicated that we would have any issues." Clearly, that wasn't the case.
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Andrew Yoon posted a new article, SimCity population '100 percent above' EA's estimations.
Being the first SimCity game in over a decade, you'd think that EA would have known that demand for their city-planning game would be through the roof. But as SimCity's bungled launch proved, that was not the case. In fact, a new interview with Maxis' Lucy Bradshaw reveals exactly how much the company had grossly underestimated launch demand.-
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To borrow from the Angry Joe A:CM review... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UGX2WE4QUw8#t=23m05s (NWS audio)
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The sad part is, I'm fairly certain they are only saying this to give an somewhat plausible excuse for the utter shambles their launch was.
"Gee, the amount of copies of our game you bought in the last week caught us totally unprepared!!"
Yet less than a week after launch, they double the number of servers... so either nobody bought the game outside of preorders (doubtful) or it wasn't that hard to add a bunch in a timely fashion, they just neglected to do it before launch. -
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Because not every distributor reports their pre-order numbers on an hourly or daily basis. Distributors may report on a weekly/bi-weekly basis and if EA wasn't expecting there to be a huge number of pre-orders, they wouldn't think to ask their distributors what their sales numbers were on out-of-band schedule.
Similarly, who knows when keys were sent out and when people decided to activate them. If EA wasn't expecting a huge influx, they wouldn't think to monitor activation counts.
"Never ascribe to malice that which is adequately explained by incompetence."
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"Ok so to beta test SimCity, our online-only game, let's start 35 days before launch! Oh and let's limit gameplay in that beta to 1 hour in the first two betas, then in the third beta we'll go to 4 hours! That should cover all possibilities right? No one ever plays games for more than 4 hours, right? Oh and we'll get 3 weeks after the first beta, one week after the second beta and another week after the third beta to test and fix all the bugs. Oh, and we'll only enable regional features in the third beta, because a week to test those should be plenty, for one of the biggest franchises in gaming. Yup, this sounds like a solid plan!"
-- Lucy Bradshaw's train(wreck) of thought, prior to SimCity's launch, according to her own words -
"Even in a private game where you own the entire region and have elected to play solo, we still do a great deal of activity on our servers to keep the state of your region up to date for all of the cities you play to have the same information."
"Our servers can now support several hundred thousand peak concurrent players"
So you're saying, my home computer can't handle 1/500,000th of the work your servers do? -
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I think we're missing the more interesting internal picture at EA... a product manager royally messed up. Not the launch per-say, but the demand and expectation for the game. Because they underestimated demand, they also under spent on marketing and investment in launch support. Which mean they had to fast-track a lot of stuff rather than plan ahead. That usually means it costs more. Sometimes a LOT more. So, I'd be willing to bet even with the 100% under estimation on game sales, because of the lack of accurate forecast they're still in the red and even more so than they should be based on raw game sales.
*IF* it had an offline mode that wouldn't have required additional server capacity and additional support staff (yeah, just a wild guess they might have put a few more bodies in place to handle the crushing wave of customer calls) they wouldn't have to pay a premium on rapid deployment and patches which would have helped the game's P&L.
but, this is all guesswork. -
Total dick comment here but its true. I'm having a blast with Tropico 4. During the Simcity launch fiasco it was $9.99. Can't beat that with a stick! I would have enjoyed playing Simcity but EA/Maxis has some learning to do before I ever trust them again. I was there for the original Simcity,,, played the hell out of it. Too bad the "suits" over-encumbered this new version.
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