Super Mario Run Nets $14 Million in Revenue in First Three Days

It looks like the naysayers are wrong about Super Mario Run's market viability.

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Super Mario Run is Nintendo's first big push into the mobile gaming market, and it's been a controversial week for the Big N. Super Mario Run has been slammed with negative reviews and sentiments in the Apple App Store and elsewhere over it's perceived "high" price of $9.99 for the full version. Concerns over this payment model affecting Super Mario Run's revenue led Nintendo's shares to fall in price in the five days after the release of the game, though they have stabilized in the last two days.

App data collecting firm App Annie paints a different story about Super Mario Run, though. According to the company's data, Super Mario Run was downloaded 37 million times in its first three days on the Apple App Store and netted $14 million in revenue for Nintendo.

According to Sensor Tower, another app intelligence firm, Super Mario Run hit 25 million downloads in a shorter timespan than any other Apple App Store game ever has. Sensor Tower estimates that over the four-day weekend from Super Mario Run's launch, December 15-18, the title earned Nintendo over $21 million in revenue. According to Nintendo itself, the Super Mario Run has been downloaded over 40 million times in its first four days on the Apple App Store.

Market analysis firm SuperData had previously projected that Super Mario Run would earn around $60 million in revenue over the course of its first month on the market. However, after the requirement to always be online came out, SuperData downgraded that forecast to $15 million in revenue.

With Super Mario Run doing better on paper than SuperData, Nintendo Stockholders, and a large number of reviewers thought it would, there's a large disparity between sentiment over the game's price and reality. With Super Mario Run well on track to meet SuperData's original revenue estimate of $60 million, we have to ask, why all the negativity over an obviously successful title? Perhaps it's just that those who are upset over personal issues with the game are more vocal than the huge number of people who have paid for and are enjoying Super Mario Run.

For more about Nintendo's stock outlook and stock market tips, check out, "Game Trader: Should You Buy Nintendo Stock?"

Contributing Editor
From The Chatty
  • reply
    December 21, 2016 2:35 PM

    Jason Faulkner posted a new article, Super Mario Run Nets $14 Million in Revenue in First Three Days

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      December 21, 2016 2:39 PM

      Well that's much better sell through rate than what I'd heard. At 40 million installs in 4 days that's greater than a 3.5% payer/install.

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      December 21, 2016 2:44 PM

      That.. doesn't seem.. that impressive?

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        December 21, 2016 2:53 PM

        It's a 1.4 million unit sell through. Not that great for a Mario game on an install base the size of iOS but good for the interest level it seems to have garnered. Also, it's well within the black at this point I'm sure.

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        December 21, 2016 3:16 PM

        Less than a 4% conversion rate. Not sure what a "good" rate would be though.

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          December 21, 2016 4:18 PM

          Conversion rates are usually well under 1%, and that's for games that allow small buy-ins. For a $10 buy-in, that's monstrous.

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      December 21, 2016 2:49 PM

      I'm glad you provided some context for that number. It sounds like $14 million is down from people's initial hopes but up from the revised "this thing is a disaster for Nintendo" sentiment.

      $14 million though is a small drop in their water. They did 4.6 billion in net sales last year. That's like 12 million a day if my math is right.

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        December 21, 2016 6:22 PM

        Yeah, we are talking about since release also... the game just came out. Over the course of the next few months it could still make a ton more.

        I'd buy it two or three times if they release it on Android.

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          December 21, 2016 6:25 PM

          I was just pointing out that 14m over three days for a huge game launch isn't necessarily momentous when the company makes 12m on any average day.

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            December 21, 2016 6:40 PM

            there might be a lot of marketing value in it though

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              December 21, 2016 7:09 PM

              Marketing value is a big point, Iwata said as much when talking about their move into mobile. The games need to be good but they're also there to promote the brand

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          December 21, 2016 9:16 PM

          Do mobile games really have legs without the f2p model? I don't really know but just from my limited exposure it doesn't sound like it happens very often.

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        December 21, 2016 6:30 PM

        It's a shame about the reviews. It's easily one of the best mobile games ever, and the asking price is fair. The real shame in all of this is the absolute shitty state of the mobile games market. Even if Nintendo released it for free, and rampant with micro transactions, people would still bitch. "You put micro transactions in my Mario!" Double edged sword.

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          December 21, 2016 6:42 PM

          Yeah, I think their pricing was very fair. Perhaps for their next offering they'll do an extra tier: free trial, $5 for more, +$5 additional for everything.

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      December 21, 2016 8:39 PM

      For the Mario IP, install base of iOS, and the monetization approach I would consider this a huge failure. This isn't F2P--there's no going up from launch with revenue.

      Do you know what any traditional Mario game makes in the first 3 days?

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        December 21, 2016 8:54 PM

        [deleted]

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          December 21, 2016 9:04 PM

          Honestly the "pay 2.99 to unlock the next world" is how they should have done it.

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        December 21, 2016 9:04 PM

        i wonder what the development cost for it was, its very polished and well done no doubt, but it is still 24 levels and a far cry from a real mario game.

        they probably still profit more on the 3ds games, but lets face it, noones gonna buy a $30 game on iphone and the people who bought nsmb2 got robbed

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          December 22, 2016 7:04 AM

          I'm suspect they've purposely been not producing enough carts on release day to push the eShop. Especially for games like Animal Crossing and Mario. Of course, I could just be imagining it.

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