Call of Duty: Ghosts sales lower than Activision's reduced expectations, says analyst

Activision warned investors that it expected lower year-over-year sales of Call of Duty this year, but an analyst says the sales may be flagging even more than projected.

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Call of Duty: Ghosts took the top software sales in November, but it was mostly competing with games that had already launched in prior months. Activision's expected sales boast was more tempered this year as well, having to compete against the likes of Grand Theft Auto 5. While the publisher had warned of lower numbers this year, sales may be even lower than expected.

VentureBeat reports that Ghost sales marked a 19% year-over-year decrease from Black Ops 2. Activision told investors that they expected some drop while players hold off to transition to new consoles, but Cowen analyst Doug Creutz says the picture is more serious than the warnings suggested. He says that the difference worth noting is the release dates, as Ghosts had more days on the market but still suffered its slump.

"Upon further reflection, we think the [Call of Duty] numbers are a bit more troubling than they first appeared," Creutz wrote in a note to investors. "While the year-over-year gap is only 19 percent thus far, that includes two extra weeks of sales for the 360 and PS3 versions [of Black Ops II]. Against 2011's [Modern Warfare 3], where the difference is only one week, the title is down 32 percent life-to-date. We don't think it is out of the question that the title could wind up comparing down 20 percent to 25 percent year-over-year [to Black Ops II], which is appreciably worse than the down 10 to 15 percent that we think is baked in to guidance."

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  • reply
    December 17, 2013 10:00 AM

    Steve Watts posted a new article, Call of Duty: Ghosts sales lower than Activision's reduced expectations, says analyst.

    Activision warned investors that it expected lower year-over-year sales of Call of Duty this year, but an analyst says the sales may be flagging even more than projected.

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      December 17, 2013 10:04 AM

      Good. Make them innovate or take a damn break.

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        December 17, 2013 10:13 AM

        Agreed, its a shame treyarch didn't have the first next gen COD...

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          December 17, 2013 10:45 AM

          They Treyarch games are crap. Look at the proportion of people who completed the campaign:

          Modern Warfare 2: 58.0%
          Modern Warfare 3: 57.2%

          Black Ops: 47.8%
          Black Ops 2: 36.7%

          There are no Steam achievements for Modern Warfare or World at War, but given how utterly dismal World at War was I suspect they'd show a similar pattern.

          The Treyarch games have all sorts of problems:
          -Total lack of variety in the levels.
          -Regular use of infinitely spawning enemies.
          -Poor level design where you die five times before you work out what you're supposed to do.
          -Grenade spam (mostly in Word at War).

          I wonder how many people who completed the Treyarch games actually enjoyed them. I finished all of the campaigns, but I didn't find any of them to be enjoyable. From the percentages above it seems a lot more people give up before even reaching the end.

          The Treyarch games simply aren't very good, and after three band games in a row I won't be bothering with next year's game at all.

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            December 17, 2013 11:39 AM

            Even my teenager nephews know who Treyarch is and to avoid their CoD iterations. These are the same kids who will will say an iOS game is cool because it "has a tank."

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            December 17, 2013 1:04 PM

            [deleted]

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            December 17, 2013 1:16 PM

            People don't buy COD for single player dude.

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            December 17, 2013 1:18 PM

            Black Ops 2 Multiplayer is the best in the entire series. You are looking at entirely the wrong statistics.

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            December 17, 2013 2:23 PM

            The Treyarch games are the only recent CoD titles I gave even a slight damn about for the single player. They're at least enjoyable without being too heavy handed with the cliched BS that the latest IW titles (starting with MW2) have been full of.

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            December 17, 2013 2:38 PM

            I submit that Block Ops 1 has the best multiplayer in the entire series. Never played the single player though.

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            December 17, 2013 4:48 PM

            BLOPS2 is going to be better received and remembered than ghosts. WaW is seen as one of the better cod multiplayers and so was blops1. Mw3 is viewed as the poorest entry in the series and I think the same lukewarm or low opinion will be said of ghosts so treyarch's rep has been on the rise and infinity ward's on the fall. Interestingly, mw3 and ghosts were produced by the new infinity ward after Vince and zampella were dismissed soon after mw2's release and many of infinity ward's top people followed them. I do not think that is a coincidence. The talent remaining at infinity ward is a shell of the team that made mw1 and mw2. Treyarch is the lead cod developer now.

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            December 17, 2013 5:26 PM

            All the COD games have the most of the issues you just described. It's part of the series. That said I don't see how you can say the Treyarch games have a lack of variety in the levels because they had some pretty different types in BLOPS 2 w/ the RTS stuff.

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            December 17, 2013 6:01 PM

            I've never managed to get through the campaign in any Call of Duty...Treyarch does better multiplayer at this point (at least on the PC so far as I've found).

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              December 17, 2013 7:00 PM

              I think the last IW game I really liked the multiplayer in was CoD4 (which was my favorite in the series...never played CoD1 and CoD2 came out when I couldn't care less about WW2 FPS games, so I didn't really care much about it). MW2 never worked quite right for me with the whole listen-server setup. Ghosts is a step in the right direction on that front as you actually have dedicated servers behind the scenes and even MW3 seemed to be a more competent implementation of the listen-server so that it wasn't as laggy I found. But they still weren't that interesting to me...they had capped FOVs and they took out things like diving to prone that the Treyarch games had that made them a little more fun and crazy.

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        December 17, 2013 10:34 AM

        The sales put them in line with Modern Warfare 3. I don't think it's any reason for them to panic just yet.

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        December 17, 2013 10:49 AM

        Yup. They should go to every other year and put one of the teams on something new (I'm sure they'd be happy to get a break from CoD).

        Honestly, if they are running things correctly they still shouldn't be disappointed with the sales because they are probably still making a killing compared to almost every game out there. Let Treyarch do their Call of Duty game and then take a break. Adjust the budget and projections accordingly knowing they might not get as much sales as the previous Treyarch CoD (but still make tons of money) and then put Treyarch on a new WWII CoD game and give them as much time as they need. Give them 3 years if they need! People will be ready for it when it comes.

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        December 17, 2013 2:03 PM

        [deleted]

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        December 17, 2013 2:28 PM

        But that's not Activision's mantra. They don't have studios developing new IP's, just studios pumping out sequels.

        I bet a lot is riding on Destiny, what else does Blizz/Activision have in the line up besides SC2:pt 3?

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          December 17, 2013 2:40 PM

          New Skyliners, Diablo 3 expansion, next WoW expansion. Basically their regulars. Next treyarch CoD.

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            December 17, 2013 2:54 PM

            Skylanders, you mean. Though a game with nothing but Nissan Skylines would get me interested.

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              December 17, 2013 3:18 PM

              Ha. I was picturing my dude in Far Cry 3 hanging on a network of cables looking like 'public' electric lines in India.

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        December 17, 2013 2:47 PM

        Preferably both.

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      December 17, 2013 10:26 AM

      first game i've ever traded in is COD Ghosts PS4. finished the SP, and the MP got boring because there is no variety. no vehicles is the biggest issue. the graphics are decidedly last gen looking...especially the animation.

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        December 17, 2013 1:03 PM

        You didn't honestly expect vehicles in a CoD game...did you?

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        December 17, 2013 1:08 PM

        Not having a vehicles is one of the best thing about CoD games.

        Vehicles are one of the worst things to ever happen to shooters starting with whichever Unreal Tournament game added them (I want to say 2k4 but I could be wrong).

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          December 17, 2013 3:51 PM

          Tribes on PC. Halo on console.

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            December 17, 2013 4:05 PM

            Battlefield pre-dates it. Even the early Call of Duty games had tanks. If you are designing FPS games, maps, and modes with vehicles in mind, they're fine. The worst thing to ever happen to shooters? Hardly.

            Besides, UT2K's were mainly restricted to Onslaught mode that would be terrible without them. It was built specifically for vehicles, and for some people that was their favorite part of the game. And there were still plenty of non-vehicle standard DM and CTF type maps and modes. Something for everyone.

            I'm not saying Ghosts should have vehicles, or any game should for that matter, but I am saying you're an idiot for a statement like it's the worst thing to happen to shooters. But hey, that's just your preference. I would have missed out on some amazing games if that were my stance.

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              December 17, 2013 4:43 PM

              I think Tribes, as in Starsiege Tribes had vehicles and came out in 1998. Battlefield 1942 was in 2002. Admittedly though, the vehicles in Tribes were a scout, a light transport and a heavy transport (though the light transport might have been from a mod) and all were aircraft, so 1942 might really be the first game that had a variety of vehicles in it that was also a shooter.

              I'm trying to think if there were any other games that added vehicles to the multiplayer mix prior to that though, or in the same timeframe.

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                December 17, 2013 4:46 PM

                I meant BF1942 & Halo pre-dates UT2K4 for vehicles in shooters. Tribes is definitely the first I can remember. Codename Eagle also predates BF. I'm sure there were other games around then. Like Delta Force 2 and Operation Flashpoint.

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          December 17, 2013 4:09 PM

          It was UT2004. I like Onslaught with vehicles, but it needs a correctly balanced map and good team coordination to be fun.

          UT2003 had a drivable vehicle, but it was just a test vehicle (bulldog) on a test map, which you had to load using console commands, and it wasn't balanced for gameplay.

          My favorite Call of Duty vehicle moments were the tanks in the CoD1 Eastern Front campaign (because you had independent axis and tread control; CoD2 onward ruined that by forcing the tank to rotate Halo-style toward the direction the turret was facing), as well as the passenger seat sequence in CoD1's Ste Mère Eglise campaign, and the AC-140 sequence in CoD4 (which were essentially rail-shooter turret sequences, and got old after 10 times... but the first 10 times were pretty damn fun.)

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          December 17, 2013 5:16 PM

          [deleted]

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        December 17, 2013 1:19 PM

        Every time I controlled Riley I just rolled my eyes. Like after ten games this is their gimmick?

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          December 17, 2013 1:21 PM

          Yah the dog is really stupid.

          Surprisingly the scuba / space stuff was actually cool. I had expected those parts to be stupid as well.

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            December 17, 2013 1:42 PM

            Those levels were neat and I liked the skyscraper one the most. They were fun to play through but then when the story parts got interjected it can break the pacing.

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            December 17, 2013 2:28 PM

            why didn't those cool maps make the MP? was expecting an epic space battle in MP

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      December 17, 2013 10:44 AM

      If it's not my least liked COD, it's close.

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      December 17, 2013 10:51 AM

      There it is; Peak CallaDuty.

      I do want to see another Call of Duty game, but I remember back when it was an homage to actual World War II campaigns, not the Hollywood fantasy of Jesse Stern or Stephen Gaghan. But if Activision's chasing volume, and their double-down bet failed this time, are they going to throw a tantrum like they did with Guitar Hero? Or start the retailmium (sorry, gotta use that horrible term) multiplayer-only title with no campaign, and kill off the 360 / PS3 SKUs because they're not conducive to ongoing freemium updates?

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      December 17, 2013 1:25 PM

      Whelp, the countdown to shuttering Treyarch and Inifinity Ward studios just got a multiplier

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      December 17, 2013 1:25 PM

      haven't played it yet, but only a few on my steam list have ever played. it seems quite lackluster in terms of PC gamer response.

      I hope they really refocus on SP and co-op. their MP/DM stuff seems like it's tapped out.

      It was so hard to pass up on this, knowing I can't tolerate any running/jumping/akimbo bullshit any longer.

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        December 17, 2013 1:27 PM

        Akimbo isn't a problem in Ghosts. WTF do you mean by "running / jumping bullshit" though?

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          December 17, 2013 1:40 PM

          I think he is talking about the basic controls. haha

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      December 17, 2013 2:03 PM

      I'd bet a lot of people held off until they get their next-gen consoles.

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      December 17, 2013 2:40 PM

      I wonder: did the same thing happen to the sports games? I bet a lot of people were not too pumped to pay for a 'last gen' version of Madden but haven't upgraded to the new consoles.

      It's probably a scary time for all those studios.

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        December 17, 2013 2:59 PM

        Jeff Gerstmann was talking about the "Madden '06 Factor" when he talked about his review on the Bombcast, how on playing the new 360 Madden, it seemed as though EA Sports put far more effort in getting the fundamentals working on the new console, than in building any truly new innovative features. And to him, it seemed a lot like that in CoD:Ghosts.

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          December 17, 2013 3:20 PM

          I think that's the story with a lot of these launch titles.

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            December 17, 2013 3:28 PM

            I think the key is, in terms of production on the next game, what does Infinity Ward do now? Reviewers ridiculed Stephen Gaghan's writing work probably a little worse than Jesse Stern's in the past three IW games. The dog mechanic was panned as a reveal marketing gimmick. I kept seeing MP reviewers said they'd rather be playing BLOPS2.

            If the sales really are down 20%, then doubling down on the same formula would be a recipe for continued decline. They're probably going to make some moves, some of which won't make the returning fans happy.

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              December 17, 2013 4:02 PM

              Honestly they need to let the two game series diverge more. I think it helps each ones sales to be known in fans heads as two different CoDs.

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                December 17, 2013 4:21 PM

                I think that's okay, but what I'm afraid of is that Infinity Ward already set up a "Ghosts 2" with this same cast of characters, same writer, same "War in the United States is SUPER-FUCKING-SUBVERSIVE!!!" attitude (which conveniently ignores that MW2, and other FPS games following MW2 and aping MW2, already did this), and they'll throw in more mini-game gimmicks to ultimately act as corridors and roller-coaster turret sequences.

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      December 17, 2013 2:55 PM

      MP is awesome and very high quality, SP is fine but could be better. My beef with SP is the arbitrary limits the game places on your movement during scripted sequences at the beginning of each level. i.e. why is it that sometimes you can't run, or squat, or why are your movement different at different moments?

      They just need to clean that up a bit and make it consistent. It sort of bugs the OCD/perfectionist part of me.

      I think another hit in sales came from mass negative reviews from long-time BO2 players. Two issues with that:

      1) They were comparing a fully patched/mature game to a newly released game.
      2) Play styles are completely different and requires getting used to. BO2 is more closed in and short range, Ghosts is more wide open and long range. I don't think the negative reviewers took that into account.

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      December 17, 2013 3:21 PM

      Heh; back when it launched, Doug Creutz said that CoD:Ghosts sales would be impacted by reviews: http://www.mcvuk.com/news/read/creutz-mediocre-cod-ghosts-scores-won-t-enormously-impact-sales/0123825

      "By and large, most titles' commercial fates are decided well before the first review comes out,” he said, as reported by CVG. “Otherwise, we would not be able to use pre-launch data from Amazon and predict actual sales with a fair degree of accuracy.

      "We think COD has become such an embedded franchise that it is somewhat review-proof. We think of COD as being like EA's Madden NFL, which continues to sell similar unit numbers year in and year out, regardless of reviews; Madden's Metacritic has ranged as low as 78 in recent years.

      "Ultimately, we don't think that sales of this year's [COD] title will be impacted enormously by these reviews.”


      That was back on November 6th.

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        December 17, 2013 3:24 PM

        ..er, said that sales WOULDN'T be impacted by reviews. Of course, that's back before any of the NPD numbers or other sales figures that market research firms access when they write these investment forecasts.

        Creutz is usually far more grounded (and accurate) than someone like Michael Pachter; I get eager when I see Creutz's analyses, because they're usually very down-to-earth, and not buried in silly bombastic projections.

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        December 17, 2013 4:34 PM

        Can anyone say for sure it was directly impacted by reviews? And not franchise fatigue or anything else, like the new consoles being out and superior and many not having them yet?

        Do the die-hard Call of Duty fans care at all that their mainstay gets 1 or 2 less points on some review sites? Or are they finally getting tired of the same game after same game and realize they could be content with what they have for longer than 6 months since the last DLC they just bought for the previous one?

        It's funny he invokes sports games. No one I know personally who used to buy the one sports game they were most passionate about every single year, be it PES, FIFA, Madden, Tiger Woods, etc does so anymore. I have to imagine anyone playing the same thing slightly tweaked again and again is going to tire it as some of us have, but I know that's not true. I just know I can't take Call of Duty every year, I wouldn't be able to handle Battlefield every year either. Or a new Quake. Halo. Forza. Peggle. Anything, really. It's insane to me how many people can and do.

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        December 18, 2013 12:57 PM

        Interesting statement, but you can't really say for sure if it was impacted. My gut says long term sales would be. But word of mouth is probably more effective than critic reviews.

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      December 17, 2013 3:30 PM

      oh no, poor investors :(

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      December 17, 2013 4:17 PM

      [deleted]

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      December 17, 2013 4:48 PM

      No wonder they are sending me 20 desperate PLEASE BUY COD!! Emails a week

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      December 17, 2013 5:18 PM

      [deleted]

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      December 20, 2013 12:10 PM

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