Analysts weigh in on Nintendo loss, discuss Wii U and 3DS

Analysts react to this week's news of Nintendo's financial losses, claiming the company got into HD too late, the 3DS still has a chance to make it's mark, and the Wii U will make a big impact on the company one way or another.

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It was only a few years ago when Nintendo was on top of the video game world. Now, as the Wii and DS markets slow and the 3DS fails to set the world ablaze, the company has posted a $927 million loss.

Are investors overreacting? It depends who you ask. Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter says "things really are that bad."

Pachter reiterated that the weakness of Nintendo's console strategy does not bode well for the company. He explained to Eurogamer that the weakness of the 3DS is hurting Nintendo the most right now. "It's pretty clear that the potential for Nintendo handhelds is smaller now than it was when the DS was launched," Pachter said, "and software sales are going to continue to suffer, as the value proposition of 'shovelware' on the handhelds has declined precipitously with the emergence of free-to-play and $0.99 games on iPods and smartphones."

Screen Digest analyst Piers Harding-Rolls is a little more optimistic, saying it's "too early to call the death knell for the 3DS." That said, he points out that this holiday season will be "key in convincing third parties to increase investment in the platform." He suggests that even if this holiday goes well for Nintendo, major third-party investment might not come until late in 2012.

Meanwhile, M2 Research analyst Billy Pidgeon cites the yen's strength against the dollar as a major cause, and says that "strong yen may continue to plague Nintendo and other Japanese companies." He says that "the pressure is on for Wii U," and the system will need both strong hardware sales and a better attach rate than the Wii. He doesn't think the Wii U will be the breakout success the Wii was, but a good attach rate could compensate.

As an impact on the industry as a whole, Pachter believes that the Wii U will be the bellwether for Microsoft and Sony. "The Wii U will either succeed early, forcing Microsoft and Sony to accelerate the launches of their respective next generation consoles, or will sell only modestly, allowing Nintendo's competitors to launch later."

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  • reply
    October 28, 2011 1:30 PM

    Steve Watts posted a new article, Analysts weigh in on Nintendo loss, discuss Wii U and 3DS.

    Analysts react to this week's news of Nintendo's financial losses, claiming the company got into HD too late, the 3DS still has a chance to make it's mark, and the Wii U will make a big impact on the company one way or another.

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      October 28, 2011 1:34 PM

      Damn analysts. I want to become a part time analyst and just spout numbers all day long (well, not all day, it is part time).

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      October 28, 2011 1:46 PM

      The more I play Xenoblade..ahem...not on the Wii, the more upset I become with their decisions they made with the Wii. It's amazing how much better the experience is just by upping the internal resolution to something that isn't from 1996 especially on a game like Xenoblade were most of the experience is from the presentation.

      And the Wii U is far too late. Sony and Microsoft will likely have their next gen consoles ready by the time the first AAA games for the Wii U start showing up making the console completely irrelevant.

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        October 28, 2011 1:49 PM

        This is a real next gen console too though, while I believe it wouldn't been better for it to be released this year (and they should've pushed back the 3DS till next year) it won't be nearly as far behind as the Wii was from the 360/PS3.

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      October 28, 2011 1:49 PM

      They should downsize and develop for iOS.

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        October 28, 2011 3:18 PM

        Maybe once iOS devices have buttons but not in the platform's current state.

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      October 28, 2011 3:49 PM

      People are overreacting way too much about this. In a year or two there'll be no sign of this having happened. 3DS is just underselling because there's no games for it yet, but all these are coming out:

      Paper Mario
      Super Mario Land 3Ds
      Tales of the Abyss
      Mario Kart 7
      Smash Bros
      VVVVVV
      Animal Crossing 3DS
      Conduit 3DS
      Etrian Odyssey
      Fire Emblem 3DS
      Harvest Moon
      Heroes of Ruin
      Kid Icarus: Uprising
      Luigi's Mansion 2
      Mario Tennis 3DS
      Metal Gear Solid 3
      Monster Hunter Tri
      Monster Hunter 4
      Professor Layton VS Ace Attorney
      Professor Layton and the Mask of Miracle
      Rayman 3DS
      Rayman Origins
      Resident Evil: Revelations
      Rollercoaster Tycoon 3DS
      Sonic Generations

      And there's bound to be a Pokemon game.

      Then Wii-U will launch in 2012 with lots of third party support (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Wii_U_games) and obviously some badman first party titles. I suggest buying shares in Nintendo.

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        October 28, 2011 4:08 PM

        3ds is too expenisve and being undercut by smartphone games. wii was a gimmick with no software legs. wiiU is not a good enough gimmick. nintendo is grappling with rising dev costs just like other studios.

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        October 30, 2011 3:25 AM

        i bought a wii and now i feel tricked, i assume a lot of other people also feel that way. i will not be buying shares in nintendo.

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      October 28, 2011 4:18 PM

      They'll go the way of Sega eventually. They have great intellectual property. They need to port old games to new platforms and develop for multiple platforms.

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      October 28, 2011 4:46 PM

      So when the article says "Income loss" -- does that just mean they made less money than last year?

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        October 28, 2011 4:58 PM

        [deleted]

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          October 28, 2011 5:32 PM

          They didn't make 10.4B net. They posted an annual loss. That's a big deal, especially with a company such as Nintendo which has made consecutive annual profits forever.

          It's a short term blip in my opinion, and the market seems to be driving the price of its stock again so the investment community isn't too worried about the post.

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