Published , by Aidan O'Brien
Published , by Aidan O'Brien
Pokemon TCG Pocket is all about collecting a full Pokedex, so what are the odds of getting some of the cards? For a good look at the actual probability of getting some of these super rare cards, we have done some math below.
First things first, card drop chances are essentially behind two different occurances of RNG. First, when you get a Booster Pack, it has a 99.95% chance of being a normal Booster Pack and a 0.050% chance of being a Rare, or God Pack, as the community likes to call them. God Packs will only drop One Star or higher rarities, so you have a chance to get some really rare and pretty cards when you get one.
So, let's talk briefly about the likelihood of that happening. While we cannot work out the math to a "guaranteed" 100% chance of it occurring, as such a thing doesn't exist, we can do the math for a 99% chance. So, how many packs would you need to open to all but guarantee getting a God Pack?
4000. That's obviously a huge number, so it is best just to ignore the chance of them occurring and enjoy them if they do. And even then, you could pull 4000 packs and never get one, or 8000 packs for that matter.
Below, you will find tables with the card rarities, the probability of the card dropping, and, in brackets, roughly how many packs you would need to open to get that drop chance to a 99% chance of occurring.
| Rarity | Cards 1-3 | Card 4 | Card 5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| One Diamond | 100% | 0% | 0% |
| Two Diamonds | 0% | 90% (2) | 60% (6) |
| Three Diamonds | 0% | 5% (90) | 20% (21) |
| Four Diamonds | 0% | 1.666% (274) | 6.664% (99) |
| One Star | 0% | 2.572% (181) | 10.288% (64) |
| Two Stars | 0% | 0.5% (400) | 2% (345) |
| Three Stars | 0% | 0.222% (901) | 0.888% (811) |
| Crown | 0% | 0.04% (5000) | 0.16% (4286) |
As you can see, things look even more stark when you put the number of packs you'd need to open to effectively guarantee the drop in there. If you manage to get a God Pack, the odds change to the following, and remember, they only drop Rare cards:
So, there you go. If you are hunting a very rare Illustration card or an EX, you might be in the for the long haul based on these drop chances.
For more helpful guides, be sure to check out our Pokemon Trading Card Game Pocket page.