Tesla (TSLA) Q2 2020 earnings results and conference call transcript
Published , by Asif Khan
Tesla posted a profit in Q2 of 2020, and shares are moving afterhours on the news. This is the first time in the company's history that they achieved positive GAAP net income in four straight quarters. The company is now eligible for inclusion in the S&P 500 index.
Tesla's Q2 2020 Earnings Release
Highlights
Cash
$535M increase in our cash and cash equivalents in Q2 to $8.6B
Operating cash flow less capex (free cash flow) $418M in Q2
Profitability
$327M GAAP operating income; 5.4% operating margin in Q2
$104M GAAP net income; $451M non-GAAP net income (ex-SBC) in Q2
Four quarters of sequential profitability
Operations
Next US Gigafactory site selected; preparations underway
Increased Model S range to 402 miles (EPA)
Model Y and China-made Model 3 production rates continue to increase
Summary
Our business has shown strong resilience during these unprecedented times. Despite the closure of our main factory in Fremont for nearly half the quarter, we posted our fourth sequential GAAP profit in Q2 2020, while generating positive free cash flow of $418M.
Our profit improved sequentially due to fundamental operational improvements. Additionally, we experienced costs associated with factory shutdowns, which were offset by actions taken during the quarter to reduce expenses. For the trailing 12 months, our GAAP operating margin reached nearly 5%. We expect our operating margin will continue to grow over time, ultimately reaching industry-leading levels.
We believe the progress we made in the first half of this year has positioned us for a successful second half of 2020. Production output of our existing facilities continues to improve to meet demand, and we are adding more capacity. Later this year, we will be building three factories on three continents simultaneously.
While we invest in our product roadmap, improve technology and localize production, we continue to drive cost efficiencies across the business and closely manage working capital. It is important to manage our cash diligently in order to ensure we are ready for any scenario.
Revenue
In Q2, total revenues remained relatively flat QoQ. The positive impact of higher vehicle deliveries, higher regulatory credit revenue and higher energy generation and storage revenue was somewhat offset by lower vehicle average selling price (ASP) and lower services and other revenue.
Profitability
Our operating profit improved in Q2 despite challenging circumstances. Positive impacts included lower operating costs due to a temporary reduction in employee compensation expense, a sequential increase in regulatory credit revenue and deferred revenue recognition of $48M related to a Full Self Driving (FSD) feature release. These positive contributions were offset by significant costs related to factory shutdowns, as well as a sequential increase in non-cash SBC expense primarily attributable to $101M related to 2018 CEO award milestones.
While ASPs declined sequentially, improvements in product and manufacturing costs, driven by Model Y and China-made Model 3, and improved aftermarket software and connectivity revenue made a positive impact on our profitability
Cash
Quarter-end cash and cash equivalents increased by $535M QoQ to $8.6B, driven mainly by free cash flow of $418M. Free cash flow was negatively impacted by a higher percentage of deliveries occurring towards the end of the quarter compared to prior quarters, as well as an increase in government rebates and regulatory credit receivables, which are paid in accordance with their payment terms. Since vehicle production resumed in Fremont and Nevada in early May, our days payable outstanding was not impacted as much as initially anticipated.
5:30 PM ET - Conference call is supposed to start, I am eating a late lunch.
5:31 PM ET - Elon probably taking pregame bong rips
5:32 PM ET - TSLA at $1677/share, call starts
5:33 PM ET - Elon and Zack are on the call with other execs
5:33 PM ET - Elon thanks Tesla team for their "incredibly job"
so many challenges, too many to name
honor to work with such a great team
foruth consecutive profitable quarter
we managed to grow deliveries in the first half of the year
announcing next gigafactory in Texas
five minutes from Austin International Airport
2000 acres
right on the Colorado River
It's going to be an ecological paradise
open to the public
GIgaTexas is a go
Cybertruck, Semi, Roadster in Texas
California to do Model S and X and 3 and Y a bit
continuing to grow in California
but Cybertruck will be built in Texas
thanks city of Tusla for their consideration
Tesla was super impressed
strongly consider Tusla for future Tesla expansion
GigaTexas construction already underway
Retrofit Solar pricing is the lowest cost solar in the US
Tesla Solar costs $1.49/watt
Produced production car with more than 400 miles of range (Model S)
FSD - launched traffic lights and stop signs
testing full-self driving personally when he drives
Alpha FSD is profoundly better than people realize
Very confident about FSD being feature complete by the end of the year
Thanks Tesla team for all of their hard work
The next twelve to eighteen months there will be even more factories online
so much to be excited about that it is hard to fit into this call
hardcore engineering on autonomy and manufacturing front is mindblowing
battery day coming soon
will really surprise people
thanks again for your support in our long-term mission
looking forward to have a great journey with you
I've never been more optimistic about the future of Tesla in the history of the company
5:42 PM ET - Zack takes the mic
recognized $48 million on FSD revenue during the quarter
$428 million in credit revenue
Megapack product achieved first quarterly profit as a segment
Accounts Receiveables - only 30% are related to vehicle sales
40% of AR is related to regulatory credit sales
3 new factories over the next 18 months
Q/A - institutional
What is important to hitting 20 million/year long-term target?
Elon says it is reasonable to assume we will make a compact vehicle and a higher passenger vehicle
long way to go with 3, Y, Semi, and Cybertruck.
We'll do the obvious things
What is your vision for software at Tesla (monetization outside of FSD)?
Elon - FSD is the most important thing
upgrading of the fleet to FSD with an over-the-air update will be the largest asset value increase, in his opinion
a million cars becoming higher utility with an update
everything else is secondary
productivity and entertainment would be opportunities down the road
Zack - highlights app's ability to upgrade vehicle
premium connectivity package
Elon - step change to FSD is a lot of value
Autopilot and FSD question about important milestones
Elon - transition of the autonomy system from thinking in 2.5D to thinking in 4D
3D plus time
architectural change in the AI is what matters for FSD
not currently on the market
Autopilot is mostly 2D and not correlated to time
hard to convey just how much better a fully-4D system works
compares looking at individual pictures to immersive 360 video
giant improvement
Elon - how much better than humans does it need to be?
that is the real question
AI is something we should be concerned about
the direction AI is going
Update on manufacturing engineering?
1000% more engineering required behind a factory than the product
We are getting way better at making cars
more efficient car design informing factory design
Jerome - Focus is on increasing CapEx efficiency
build new factories for less money in less time
potential for improvement is tremendous - Elon
We want more people
Plenty of exciting places for people to work - Jerome
Exciting and fulfilling to design new production systems
you don't get forcefed a turd sandwich - Elon - lmao
long-term advantage for Tesla will be manufacturing
GigaTexas capacity?
Elon - zero right now.
Long-term? A lot
Tesla Energy question from retail investor
The sector is bigger than automotive
we need sustainable energy generation
that will need a lot of batteries
three elements of the sustainable future: EVs, solar/wind, and batteries
battery and solar will both be enormous
Megapak has been well received
Zack - Autobidder ensures the battery can do anything it can to conserve energy for users
It is like a UPS of a massive size - Elon
Zack - power plants need to be optimized on a minute to minute basis
Elon - cell production at an affordable price is our limit
that is the fundamental scaling constraint
Tesla Semi question
2021 sounds like the moment for the Tesla Semi
nickel-based batteries will be the mass efficient solution for Semi
design efficiencies has gotten good enough for Model 3 that we can use iron phosphate batteries in some models
that would free up battery capacity for longer range vehicles that need nickel batteries
No more Standard Range Y?
Elon - any mining companies out there, please mine more nickel
don't wait for nickel to go back to some higher price
efficient, ecofriendly, nickel mining needed
Tesla will pay you
300 mile range will be the new normal
next question on Tesla Insurance
Will Tesla Insurance expand outside of California?
Zack - We are working super hard on insurance
talks about using driver profiles to lower premiums based on driving data
unique advantage
Could take the Cali product, or delay the product
we chose to delay implementing insurance products in other states
Close to be filing that in other states shortly
Hope to have this in a handful of states by the end of the year
Wow, Zack got to make some news
Good for Zack
Elon jibber jabbers about things they can do that other insurance companies can't
Feedback loop for improvement better than insurance companies
a lot of great people want to join Tesla
on the insurance front, we are building a great insurance company
I would love to have some high energy actuaries join Tesla
lol
lmao
Elon
Why?
We want revolutionary actuaries
Will Tesla Insurance be required to participate in the Tesla Ride-Hailing Network?
Zack - insurance will be required, and Tesla insurance will be there
Analysts Questions
Dan Levy - On the quarter, update on Gross Margin?
was China accretive?
broadly on strategy, insourcing versus outsourcing
Berlin and Texas question on that
Zack - progress on gross margins in China
Factory still ramping
continued opportunity to optimize cost structure there
Model Y margins improved
Model Y and 3 cost structures will converge
Elon - Shanghai factory is pretty big
continuing to do more and more internally
we are producing a ton of parts that were being shipped to Shanghai
and we are locally sourcing for that
Proportion for local sourcing has been going up 5-10% a month in Shanghai
Very strong and active suppliers in China
next question Tony Sacconaghi with Bernstein
Question about Gross Margin
Industry-leading margins over time?
PTI for luxury is 8-10%
what should we expect
how much will come from EV credits?
Zack on regulatory credits
We don't manage the business with the expectation of regulatory credits
Eventually the stream of credits will reduce
Elon - worth noting that buyers of our cars don't get a tax credit
and yet our sales are continuing to do well
Continued decline in the costs to produce mature product lines
We're on a bit of a journey here - Zack
Followup by Tony - tradeoff between profitability and growth/adoption
Would you give back industry leading margins to keep growing?
Elon - we can probably do both
it is important to focus on two things: value and affordability
We will not succeed in our mission if we don't make our cars more affordable
we need to fix that
we are making progress in that regard
we need to not go bankrupt
but we are not trying to be super profitable either
we want to be slightly profitable and maxmize growth - Elon
Dumpster baby question about current demand enviroment for your vehicles
Dumper Baby is Deutsche Bank, btw
Demand is not our problem - Elon
Production, supply chain challenges
Lower body casting on the Model Y has been tricky
World's biggest casting press is being assembled right now in Fremont
it looks awesome
Firefighting on supply chain and production issues
Don't worry about demand, that is not the issue - Elon
Berlin plant question about capacity
battery sourcing for Europe?
Zack - we will solve this problem
Labor mobility in Europe is low - Elon
we need more talented people in Berlin
Garden leave is mandatory in between jobs over there
Those who know Europe will know what I am talking about - Elon
6:33 PM ET - Conference Call ends TSLA share price is $1662.01/share
Full Disclosure:
At the time of this article, Asif A. Khan, his family members, or his company Virtue LLC had the following positions: Long Tesla via TSLA shares and options